While the mayor writes op-eds and forges ahead with preliminary work on South Howard Ave and presumably working to secure the additional funding needed to do the actual work, businesses and residents near the proposed project are drafting a letter to State Attorney James Uthmeier requesting an investigation. Meanwhile the draft engineering report was released.

The sting of the increased price of the project to $100 million was already shared by staff at the last update to council. The draft engineering report indicates Phase 2 of the project would be between $32 and $50 million.

Also emphasized in the report is the effect run-off from the neighborhood Armory Gardens north of Kennedy has on the Palma Ceia Pines neighborhood. The report states that work the state is doing on Kennedy Blvd to relieve flooding will have little effect until the area north is addressed. Page 99 of the report:

The SHFR project’s H&H models show that until the significant overland flows onto W Kennedy Blvd from the north are addressed by increasing capacity of City stormwater pipes north of Kennedy, these FDOT improvements will do very little to alleviate flooding on Kennedy, even if the existing S Habana Ave system between Kennedy and the AMI Pond were to be upsized.

Page 105 Section 5.1.4.1

The RECM predicts significant overland stormwater flow reaching W Kennedy Blvd from the Armory Gardens neighborhood to the north because of inadequate capacity within the pipe systems designed to drain this neighborhood.

What the report doesn’t include is any indication there’s a plan to address that stormwater run-off. Certainly not a cost. Though on page 22 it notes if the area north of Kennedy Blvd is addressed, Phase 2 could be significantly reduced in size and extent.

During this later design phase, it is anticipated that opportunities to intercept the overland stormwater flows that currently enter Palma Ceia Pines from north of W Kennedy Blvd will be evaluated to reduce flooding along W Kennedy Blvd and within Palma Ceia Pines. Intercepting these flows could significantly reduce the size and extents of the secondary collection systems needed in Palma Ceia Pines to meet the project’s FPLOS goal throughout the SHFR Flood Reduction Focus Area. However, even if all overland flows are intercepted north of W Kennedy Blvd before reaching Palma Ceia Pines, it will not eliminate the need for the SHFR project

The plan includes detailed information on how they used documented flooding to calibrate the model.. Their modeling shows for a 5 year, 8 hour storm event (5.3 inches of rain), currently 96 homes/businesses would flood. With the completion of Phase 1 of the project, that number would be reduced to 0. For the intersection of Swann Ave and Audubon Ave, with that level of rain they estimate currently there’s street flooding for 8 hours. With Phase 1 complete street flooding at that intersection would be eliminated. And while the city and engineers have consistently maintained you can’t build a system to handle the historic level of rain from Hurricane Milton, their modeling suggests there would have been a 71% decrease in structural flooding if the proposed system had been in place.

Additionally, the report does a good job of demonstrating this project is addressing more than localized flooding in Parkland Estates. More than “South Howard”. It also addresses proposals beyond using South Howard for stormwater discharge. One of the biggest hurdles is an existing 48 inch sanitary sewer line that cuts through the affected area. The other major hurdle is the rail line. Circumventing those obstacles would increase the price. Using a different outlet than the one at Howard Ave and Bayshore Blvd would lengthen the outfall, increasing the price, in some cases up to 30%. Hard to argue for government efficiency when you are suggesting increasing the cost 150% to move an inconvenience to another part of town.

What I think the city did wrong was not position the project as Phase 1 of a much larger project from the start. Government can’t help but come up with catchy project names and I’m sure before the details surfaced there was unanimous approval of the idea of “South Howard” flood relief. Getting one neighborhood on board might have seemed like a good idea to sell the project and move it forward. And it might have all worked if not for the freak rain from Milton. The goal was always to build a major trunk line to tie other smaller projects into to alleviate a broad swath of the north east peninsula.

What Phase 1 does is turn the “AMI Pond” in Palma Ceia Pines into a giant drain straight into the main trunk with one branch hitting the “Albany Pond” adjacent to the Selmon Expressway and another into Parkland Estates. Section 5.1.3 of the draft report covers “Future Phases”. Additional branches in Palma Ceia Pines, a new branch west on Stroud Ave down Texas Ave to Bay Villa Pl. Another would be a trunk line down Morrison from Lakeview Rd Howard with a line running south on Armenia to Jetton Ave. Another would tie Waterous Ave into the Howard Ave main line. Finally a new branch would be added east on Elata. All of those pockets are directly tied to the main trunk line down Howard and Phase I. And none of that addresses the Armory Gardens issue also detailed.

So now, everyone needs to understand this is a $150+ million project to fully address the stormwater flooding issues this part of town has historically suffered from. And until the project is looked at holistically, costs will continue to rise. I have no idea if the Mayor Castor will find the funding or if this will be an issue the next mayor and council inherit. Regardless, I’m sure it will be used as a political football. The growth in this area isn’t slowing down and the water has to go somewhere. And while it might be another 100 years before another Milton happens, the intensity of summer storms isn’t going away. 2 inches in an hour or 5 inches in 8 are realities and there’s no easy fix.