At the May 15th meeting, council attempted to delay the transmittal hearing for the future land use plan update until August 28th. Due to the tension from the decision to reconsider the vote for council chair, it wasn’t caught the transmittal hearing was a publicly noticed and advertised and couldn’t be removed from the agenda. That led to confusion on how to proceed. People turned up to speak, staff was prepared to present. Ultimately it was decided to let the planning commission staff do a 10 minute presentation, allow the public to speak, but continue the transmittal hearing until August 28th. With that motion, it was included to have staff coordinate with individual council members to hold additional public information events throughout the city between now and then.
It was reiterated several times this update has been in the works for over 2 years, there’s been over 30 public outreach events, and numerous presentations to council, including workshops that provide the public an opportunity to weigh in. The key sticking point is the planning commission inserted new language between the last update to council and what they approved in 3 areas of the update. It was also made clear this update is mandated by state law to demonstrate the ability to support population growth over the next 20 years. The director of planning commission said “74,000 more people by 2045”.
But what does the current plan support? I’ve reached out to get some definitive numbers, but according to the brochure provided by the planning commission for the 2040 plan, they projected the population to be 481,128 in 2040. Tampa’s population in 2015 was 355,850 (the work for the 2040 plan would have started in 2017). The current estimated population in Tampa is 414,547 according to the US Census Bureau.
A planning commission briefing from July 2023 on 2050 projections estimate Tampa’s population for 2040 at 473,423, 484,168 in 2045 and reaching 493,236 by 2050.
If the current plan and future land use map was designed for an estimated population of 481,000 in 2040, and the latest projection for 2045 is 484,168, then the current plan generally supports the anticipated population. At most the plan needs to accommodate another 5000 people. And that’s people, not homes. A household is often 2 or more people. This isn’t a discussion however about housing supply/demand and affordable housing, it’s about whether the future land use plan supports the projected population. The answer is yes.
Tampa doesn’t need to accommodate 74,000 new people, that was accomplished in the 2040 plan. Sure, language can be tweaked to allow alternate types of missing middle housing. New targeted bonuses can be offered in parts of the city growth is encouraged. But there is no state mandate to increase density beyond what is already designated.
